000			01845nam a2200253Ia 4500
999			_c1349 _d1349
003			DE-boiza
005			20200115112251.0
008			191008
020			_a978-0-521-63480-9
040			_cIZA
100			_aClements, Michael _93822
100			_a Hendry, David _93356
245		0	_aForecasting Economic Time Series
260			_c1998 _bCambridge University Press, _aCambridge,
300			_a368 pages
340			_hC5 01
520			_aThis book provides a formal analysis of the models, procedures, and measures of economic forecasting with a view to improving forecasting practice. David Hendry and Michael Clements base the analyses on assumptions pertinent to the economies to be forecast, viz. a non-constant, evolving economic system, and econometric models whose form and structure are unknown a priori. The authors find that conclusions which can be established formally for constant-parameter stationary processes and correctly-specified models often do not hold when unrealistic assumptions are relaxed. Despite the difficulty of proceeding formally when models are mis-specified in unknown ways for non-stationary processes that are subject to structural breaks, Hendry and Clements show that significant insights can be gleaned. For example, a formal taxonomy of forecasting errors can be developed, the role of causal information clarified, intercept corrections re-established as a method for achieving robustness against forms of structural change, and measures of forecast accuracy re-interpreted.
650			_aforecasting _95472
650			_atime series _93358
650			_aMonte Carlo techniques _96438
650			_amacroeconometric models _96439
856			_uhttps://www.cambridge.org/core/books/forecasting-economic-time-series/E760D839B4D447FF475373ED848583E7#fndtn-contents _yPublisher's website
942			_cBO _2ddc