TY  - GEN
AU  - Taleb, Nassim Nicholas
TI  - The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable
SN  - 978-0-141-03459-1
PY  - 2010///
CY  - London et al., 
PB  - Penguin Books
KW  - prediction
KW  - economics
KW  - information theory
KW  - probability
N2  - The phenomenal international bestseller that shows us how to stop trying to predict everything - and take advantage of uncertainty

What have the invention of the wheel, Pompeii, the Wall Street Crash, Harry Potter and the internet got in common? Why are all forecasters con-artists? Why should you never run for a train or read a newspaper?

This book is all about Black Swans: the random events that underlie our lives, from bestsellers to world disasters. Their impact is huge; they're impossible to predict; yet after they happen we always try to rationalize them.

'Taleb is a bouncy and even exhilarating guide ... I came to relish what he said, and even develop a sneaking affection for him as a person' Will Self, Independent on Sunday

'He leaps like some superhero of the mind' Boyd Tonkin, Independent

'Funny, quirky and thought-provoking ... confirms his status as a guru for every would-be Damien Hirst, George Soros and aspirant despot' John Cornwell, Sunday Times

'Idiosyncratically brilliant' Niall Ferguson, Sunday Telegraph

'Great fun ... brash, stubborn, entertaining, opinionated, curious, cajoling' Stephen J. Dubner, Co-Author of Freakonomics
ER  -