| 000 -LEADER |
|---|
| fixed length control field |
02959nam a22002537a 4500 |
| 003 - CONTROL NUMBER IDENTIFIER |
|---|
| control field |
OSt |
| 005 - DATE AND TIME OF LATEST TRANSACTION |
|---|
| control field |
20191014095343.0 |
| 008 - FIXED-LENGTH DATA ELEMENTS--GENERAL INFORMATION |
|---|
| fixed length control field |
191014b ||||| |||| 00| 0 eng d |
| 020 ## - INTERNATIONAL STANDARD BOOK NUMBER |
|---|
| International Standard Book Number |
978-1-8479-4715-4 |
| 040 ## - CATALOGING SOURCE |
|---|
| Transcribing agency |
IZIA |
| 100 ## - MAIN ENTRY--PERSONAL NAME |
|---|
| Personal name |
Tecklock, Philip |
| 9 (RLIN) |
4830 |
|
|---|
| Personal name |
Gardner, Dan |
| 9 (RLIN) |
4831 |
| 245 ## - TITLE STATEMENT |
|---|
| Title |
Super-Forecasting: The Art & Science of Prediction |
| 260 ## - PUBLICATION, DISTRIBUTION, ETC. |
|---|
| Place of publication, distribution, etc. |
London, |
| Name of publisher, distributor, etc. |
Random House Books, |
| Date of publication, distribution, etc. |
2015 |
| 300 ## - PHYSICAL DESCRIPTION |
|---|
| Extent |
340 pages |
| 520 ## - SUMMARY, ETC. |
|---|
| Summary, etc. |
Everyone would benefit from seeing further into the future, whether buying stocks, crafting policy, launching a new product, or simply planning the week’s meals. Unfortunately, people tend to be terrible forecasters. As Wharton professor Philip Tetlock showed in a landmark 2005 study, even experts’ predictions are only slightly better than chance. However, an important and underreported conclusion of that study was that some experts do have real foresight, and Tetlock has spent the past decade trying to figure out why. What makes some people so good? And can this talent be taught?<br/><br/>In Superforecasting, Tetlock and coauthor Dan Gardner offer a masterwork on prediction, drawing on decades of research and the results of a massive, government-funded forecasting tournament. The Good Judgment Project involves tens of thousands of ordinary people—including a Brooklyn filmmaker, a retired pipe installer, and a former ballroom dancer—who set out to forecast global events. Some of the volunteers have turned out to be astonishingly good. They’ve beaten other benchmarks, competitors, and prediction markets. They’ve even beaten the collective judgment of intelligence analysts with access to classified information. They are “superforecasters.”<br/><br/>In this groundbreaking and accessible book, Tetlock and Gardner show us how we can learn from this elite group. Weaving together stories of forecasting successes (the raid on Osama bin Laden’s compound) and failures (the Bay of Pigs) and interviews with a range of high-level decision makers, from David Petraeus to Robert Rubin, they show that good forecasting doesn’t require powerful computers or arcane methods. It involves gathering evidence from a variety of sources, thinking probabilistically, working in teams, keeping score, and being willing to admit error and change course. Superforecasting offers the first demonstrably effective way to improve our ability to predict the future—whether in business, finance, politics, international affairs, or daily life—and is destined to become a modern classic. |
| 653 ## - INDEX TERM--UNCONTROLLED |
|---|
| Uncontrolled term |
decision making |
|
|---|
| Uncontrolled term |
forecasting |
|
|---|
| Uncontrolled term |
prediction |
|
|---|
| Uncontrolled term |
future |
| 856 ## - ELECTRONIC LOCATION AND ACCESS |
|---|
| Uniform Resource Identifier |
<a href="https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2015/09/26/unclouded-vision">https://www.economist.com/books-and-arts/2015/09/26/unclouded-vision</a> |
| Link text |
Review (Economist) |
|
|---|
| Uniform Resource Identifier |
<a href="https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/can-we-improve-predictions-q-a-with-philip-superforecasting-tetlock/">https://blogs.scientificamerican.com/cross-check/can-we-improve-predictions-q-a-with-philip-superforecasting-tetlock/</a> |
| Link text |
Interview with Philip Tetlock (Scientific American) |
| 942 ## - ADDED ENTRY ELEMENTS (KOHA) |
|---|
| Source of classification or shelving scheme |
|
| Koha item type |
Monography |
